Automation, But Make It Exciting
With the news about Block laying off half of its workforce “because of AI,” I was reminded of something from David Graeber’s book Bullshit Jobs.
In Bullshit Jobs, Graeber recounts stories from efficiency consultants who would go into companies and try to figure out what people were actually doing all day. They kept running into the same conclusion: a surprising amount of the work could be replaced with something about as complicated as a shell script.
Not a neural network.
Not a trillion-parameter model.
Just… a shell script.
And what’s interesting is that this almost never happened.
Companies weren’t racing to replace people with cheap, reliable automation. In many cases they did the opposite. Managers liked having large teams. Headcount was status. The number of people reporting to you was part of how importance was measured inside the organization.
So the barrier to automation wasn’t really technical.
It was organizational.
The Automation That Never Happened
Graeber’s book came out almost a decade ago, well before the current LLM hype cycle. Which makes the present moment a little strange.
For years, companies were perfectly happy not replacing work with simple, deterministic tools that were inexpensive, transparent, and easy to reason about.
But now a very expensive probabilistic system shows up, essentially a gilded Magic 8-Ball running on billions of dollars of infrastructure, and suddenly this is the thing that’s going to justify firing everyone.
There’s also a fairly obvious engineering sanity check here.
If you were actually trying to automate work inside a company, the first thing you would try wouldn’t be a trillion-parameter probabilistic model running in a datacenter somewhere.
You’d start with the simplest deterministic thing that could possibly work.
- A script
- A cron job
- A small internal tool
Something cheap.
Something predictable.
Something you can debug.
That’s just basic engineering practice: solve the problem with the simplest system that actually works.
Companies have had the ability to do that for decades.
And in many cases, they didn’t.
Which is… interesting.
Talent Hoarding
There’s also another angle here that people in tech tend to pretend is mysterious: overhiring.
In hot labor markets, some companies don’t just hire because they have work for people. They hire because they can. They hire because it denies competitors access to the same talent pool. They hire because having a “bench” feels like a strategic advantage, even if nobody can articulate what the bench is supposed to do on Monday morning.
Headcount becomes a defensive resource.
And when the cycle turns, those same companies suddenly discover “efficiency.”
Conveniently.
Deterministic vs Probabilistic
There’s also a technical wrinkle here.
A shell script is deterministic. If it works once, it works every time. If it breaks, you can read the script and see exactly why.
It’s understandable.
It’s debuggable.
The AI version is probabilistic.
Sometimes it works.
Sometimes it hallucinates APIs that don’t exist.
Sometimes it invents facts.
Occasionally it deletes the wrong table in a database.
Now to be clear, this isn’t an argument that these systems are useless. Obviously they can do useful things.
But usefulness isn’t the claim being made here.
The claim is that they suddenly justify replacing entire departments.
The Economics Are Also Strange
And the cost difference isn’t small.
A shell script runs on the same machine that’s already doing the work. It costs essentially nothing.
The AI version requires datacenters, specialized hardware, enormous energy consumption, and entire companies worth of infrastructure engineering just to keep the system online.
So in the one scenario where automation was cheap and obvious, nobody bothered.
But now that automation requires industrial-scale compute infrastructure, suddenly the economics are supposed to make sense.
Which raises a question.
If companies didn’t replace people with shell scripts when they easily could have…
Why exactly are we pretending the stochastic text generator is the thing that’s finally going to do it?
The Narrative
One possible answer is that the technology itself isn’t the interesting part.
The narrative is.
“We replaced people with shell scripts.”
That doesn’t sound visionary.
“We’re restructuring around AI.”
That does.
And that might explain why stories like the recent layoffs at Block get framed the way they do.
Because historically, companies didn’t avoid automation when it was hard.
They avoided it when it was boring.
The shell scripts were cheaper.
The shell scripts were simpler.
The shell scripts were more reliable.
They just didn’t have a hype cycle.